I stated recently on the podcast that I thought it would be best for #thecountry if neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump were on the ballot in November, 2024. I am not convinced the Republican base is ready to nominate someone else, but Joe Biden looks finished.
I started thinking about this back in May when I tweeted that “there is more than a 50/50 chance Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee for President in 2024.” Each week that goes by, the odds that this is so have crept up. I think at this point its more like 70-30 the nominee will be someone else, likely Gavin Newsome. Let’s talk about why.
Age and Health
I think even the most ardent supporters of Joe Biden have to now admit he is in serious decline. From tripping on stairs and stages, to shaking hands with people not there, mumbling unintelligibly in front of foreign leaders and the press and seeming to lose awareness, the President shows myriad signs he is not well. He reportedly has been “on vacation” for 40% of his presidency and his daily schedule seems to be notoriously light.
And unlike 2020 - where President Biden sat in his basement while the electorate voted “not Trump” rather than “for Biden” - he will be in the race of his life this time around. In a recent Emerson College poll that included a 3-way race with Cornel West (the Green Party candidate), Trump beat Biden by 5 points 44-39. So although the incumbent usually has a large advantage in Presidential races, all bets are off as it stands right now. The Democratic Party needs a nominee who will campaign vigorously and make a strong case for his or her election.
Speaking of which, Joe Biden’s campaign is practically nonexistent. It makes us suspicious that the plan is already in place to replace him with Gavin Newsome. I further speculate that if this is indeed the plan, the move will be made as close to the actual election as possible, leaving little time for Republicans or the press to vet the Governor of California.
Corruption Scandal
It has become increasingly clear to any one paying attention: Joe Biden’s son Hunter sold access to the sitting VP (Joe) to foreign interests in China, Ukraine, Russia and other countries. It is more than likely they also took at least 1 outright bribe from Ukrainian gas company Burisma to - despite dubious claims otherwise - reverse the policy of the United States and force Ukraine to fire the prosecutor who was investigating Burisma. It has been claimed that they may have taken as much as $50M from these foreign interests.
This is a scandal of massive proportions - it will not go away unless the DOJ is allowed to continue to stonewall, obfuscate and protect the President from these allegations. We also know the House Republicans will not give this up before November 2024. I would not be surprised if an impeachment inquiry moves forward, or even that the President announces he will not seek reelection as stated above.
Competition
We should also be watching what other potential rivals for the Democratic nomination are doing. Gavin Newsome has been working on his national identity over the past few years. He is increasingly the darling of the Washington DC blob with unending positive coverage. He’s also recently been trying to pick fights with Ron DeSantis, whom many believe to be the heir apparent to Trump. And the Biden team doesn’t like it. Newsome is a skilled politician - good looking, well spoken and great on TV. He’d be a formidable candidate if he can squeak by his lousy record as Governor.
Likewise, Kamala Harris has been increasing her presence on the national stage, but as the VP she can’t run unless Biden does not. But watch Bernie Sanders - he just made his first trip to New Hampshire. Is he cautiously laying the groundwork for Bernie 3.0?
Finally RFK, Jr. is in the mix. It is very strange for an incumbent President to have serious challengers from his own party. And although RFK and Marianne Williamson have not broken 20% in any poll, the President is only polling at 61% in these same polls of his own party. And according to CNN, 75% of DEMOCRATS do not want Joe Biden to run. Unless this changes quickly, Biden will lose. The progressive left will peel off to vote 3rd party and the Republican nominee will win. Something has to give.
So, you heard it here first. Watch Newsome, watch Harris, and watch Bernie. And finally, can we please get a Democratic Presidential Debate? This is too important an election to allow the sitting President to phone his campaign in.