Republican Primary Race Analysis #1: First Debate Prep
Analyzing the race as it begins this week
Late last week, Byron York wrote a piece in the Washington Examiner with the headline, “As first debate approaches, is GOP race already over?” Mr. York as always provides a great analysis, quoting an unnamed pollster who claims the race is indeed already run, and that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.
Betteridge’s Law of Headlines aside (the answer to every headline’s question is no), and as I tweeted later, polls at this point in the race are close to meaningless. In the recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa, 52% of GOP caucus voters said they had not made up their mind yet. And despite national polls (which are entirely meaningless in a state-by-state Presidential contest) showing Trump with huge leads, the race in Iowa is much closer, with Trump leading DeSantis 42-16. So Trump does not have a majority and there is an opportunity for DeSantis to build. Importantly, the “legendary” pollster who ran the NBC News poll says the race is much closer than it seems, with Trump leading in first and second choice totals 63-61 against DeSantis. Remember the Iowa vote is a caucus so this may be pretty important.
Thus, it is a mistake for the Trump team to skip this debate. The game has not started and Trump is sitting out the first scrimmage. The caucus in Iowa does not take place until January 15th - 21 weeks from now - still almost half a year. And Super Tuesday is not until March 5th - a lifetime in presidential campaigns. It is natural for the media to want to spin a narrative that this raced is over, but it has not begun.
So, with that in mind, we’re going to take a few minutes to handicap the race and the debate as it stands today, in prep for the fireworks tomorrow night. We won’t cover Trump here as he is not participating, and we’re focused on a few key candidates at this point.
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida
The architect of the Free State of Florida, Ron DeSantis seemed to have all of the wind at his sails for this nomination earlier this year. His first term as Governor of Florida could not have gone better. He built a strong economy, led the charge in both returning parental rights to the education system, and in a more science-based approach to the COVID lockdowns and vaccine hysteria. He won reelection in Florida by 20 points. Make no mistake - This was a huge, historical victory for DeSantis. Trump only won Florida twice by 1 and 3 points, respectively and Obama won Florida by less than a point - the last 3 Presidential elections have shown Florida is a purple state. This all seemed like a perfect springing off point for his Presidential bid.
His campaign has however stalled. Two major reasons for this:
More money has been spent so far attacking DeSantis (by both the Trump and Biden campaigns) than has been spent attacking every other candidate combined. We should surmise that this means both candidates see DeSantis as the major threat to their own candidacy and want to take him off the board early.
Both the media (who write endless process stories about DeSantis’ “failing” campaign) and, it would seem, Democratic elements in the prosecutorial class have sucked all of the proverbial oxygen out of the room. Just as the last 2 presidential campaigns, coverage is 24/7 Trump indictments. This not only leaves no space for DeSantis, but it has spurred a huge resurgence in the polls for Trump.
So what does he do in this debate? In our view, hit the reset button. Introduce yourself to the Republican electorate as if they’ve never met you. Focus on your accomplishments in Florida and your ability to run an effective government despite major headwinds. Try to marry the Trump message with your record of effective governing. Keep your attacks aimed at the Biden administration and leave attacking Trump to Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson and others who need to break through to have any chance. Stick and move. Things will change.
Vivek Ramaswamy, Entrepreneur
His campaign is one of the most encouraging happenings in the pre-season scrimmages so far. Mr. Ramaswamy is extremely intelligent, well-spoken and thoughtful. It is hard to argue with much of what he says, though some of his policy statements are amazingly naive (the DC blob will never allow the sort of cuts he is proposing).
At #TheCountry, we’re just not entirely sure he’s not a snake oil salesman. His career has not been well vetted, and Republican voters may be surprised to learn he is a former Hedge Fund darling and that he ran a pharmaceutical company in which he became filthy rich while delivering no new drugs. Considering the recent problems with vaccines and the pharmaceutical industry lately, this may turn off many voters. He was also was just recently launching a new mutual fund company which makes us wonder whether this is really a serious campaign. He will need to take these punches (which we expect to come from the folks lower in the polls) and we’ll see how he responds.
We expect Mr. Ramaswamy to do very well (he may be the most inspiring candidate we’ve seen on the national stage since Obama) if he can dodge his hedge fund and pharmaceutical pasts.
Mike Pence, former Vice President
Uninspiring inside-the-beltway hack. No chance.
Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador
We honestly have heard little from her since her bumpy campaign launch. She needs to break through with a Tulsi Gabbard/Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris/Joe Biden moment a la 2016/2020, respectively. It is sad that, as the only woman in the race, these are the stakes but we must call them as we see them.
Tim Scott, Senator from South Carolina
Tim Scott has a great American story and can be a strong force in this race. He has to run the optimist’s campaign; working to bring together the American people. This will be an introduction of Mr. Scott to many voters and he should stick to his stump speech/biography. His job is to gain name recognition.
Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson
The Never Trump wing of the party. Their job is to attack Trump and lower his support. Come out swinging and don’t let up. Christie will do it, Asa does not seem up to the task.
Doug Brughum
Who? Apparently, bought donations to make the stage. No thanks.
Race at it Stands
Source (downloaded 8/22/23): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html