Ready for the First Debate of the 2024 General Election?
Ready for the First Debate of the 2024 General Election?
Regardless of what you think of Fox News, Hannity, Newsom or DeSantis, please tune in Thursday night. Your country is counting on you.
On Thursday, November 30th, the first debate of the 2024 general election will take place between the two politicians most likely to be nominated for President by their respective parties. On that night, Sean Hannity of Fox News will host a debate between Governor Gavin Newsom of California and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.
What about Joe Biden and Donald Trump? Not forgotten, just dismissed. I do not believe either one of the two will end up as their party’s nominee, let alone the President on January 20th, 2025. I first tweeted in May that I did not believe that Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee, and I wrote in August the many reasons why, including his age and clear mental frailty, the dissonance of “Bidenomics,” which obfuscates price hikes that continue to punish everyday Americans, weak fecklessness abroad and heating up corruption charges. I have always believed that at some point (perhaps as late as the Democratic National Convention in August 2024) Biden will drop out of the 2024 race, President Johnson style, and name his replacement. With Kamala Harris such a weak candidate, the hardest part will be replacing her with Gavin Newsom as the choice for nominee. Perhaps they will orchestrate some drama that requires an 11th hour “unity” candidate like Newsom. I would imagine they’ve worked out a payoff for Harris to play ball, but it remains to be seen. The lateness of such a move would ensure that the national press and others have little time between the convention and the start of early voting to vet Newsom and his disastrous record everywhere he has governed, including as mayor of San Francisco.
As for Trump, I’ve also written how he has disqualified and disgraced himself (which is saying a lot for an egomaniac). His handling of COVID, his weak response to violence on January 6th, and his unwillingness to concede and hand over power with dignity have shown his true colors. Not to mention that every person that has ever worked for Trump who is not a sycophant hates him. The Executive Branch is too large for one person to manage and lead, and he will not be able to attract the voluminous number of quality people needed to turn this country around. He is a great marketer in the sense he can persuade many that the sky is orange, but he is no leader and no governor. I do not believe any serious person who reviews the record of Ron DeSantis would vote for Trump instead.
And yet, the polls. This is the silly season of the Presidential race. Polls come out every day and the pundits react, while these polls mean nothing. In early December 2004, Howard Dean led in all national polls against John Kerry. Four years later at the same point, Hillary Clinton led Barrack Obama by 20 points and Rudy Giuliani was the frontrunner on the Republican side. In 2012, Newt Gingrich was the Republican leader at the same point.1
In fact, based upon the reporting that Matt Taibbi did in some of those races, and my own speculation, I believe the polls at this point really indicate who the establishment wants to win the race as much as anything else. One can manipulate the questions asked and the persons polled to have polling say whatever the pollster and their sponsor want the poll to say, within a margin. The donor class and the mainstream media have become very accustomed to pressing a thumb on the scales of the nomination process, and in many cases they determine the outcome, even overturning the votes of the people in primaries. For whatever reason, right now the establishment wants a Biden-Trump rematch, perhaps because they know Biden would probably defeat Trump again. Let’s all face it, Trump got lucky with a highly disaffected electorate in 2016 that would have voted in any one but an establishment hack like Hillary Clinton. Trump has helped the Republicans lose every election since. To nominate him again would be suicide, but Republican party elites don’t suffer the consequences. They just make UniParty deals to keep the status quo.
So if you’ve followed me this far and don’t disgree, you must regard the upcoming Thursday night debate as very important. It is a chance for DeSantis to show his stuff one on one with a Biden proxy who, let’s face it, is 10 times more capable in a debate than the doddering President. It is also a chance for Newsom to draw a stark contrast from the old man’s decline - a way to get voters in his party to put more pressure on Biden to hand the reins over.
I must admit to you, dear reader, that much of this column is hopefully speculative. While I despise Governor Newsom’s policies in California and his terribly elitist handling of COVID, he is a charming, articulate candidate made for television. He will give any Republican the fight of their life for the Presidency. And Governor DeSantis is almost exactly the opposite - a gifted governor and decisive leader who may be the least charming President since Nixon if elected. It will be a debate (and I hope a race) of style versus substance, sizzle against steak. Regardless, the quality of candidate, debate and political discussion across our great country will be an order of magnitude higher when Trump and Biden are no longer a part of it. They carry too much baggage and need to both step aside (or be forced out) for the good of the country.
Every person who cares about the future of this country should be rooting for these two men to open a substantive dialogue about our future. Please, regardless of what you think of Fox, Newsom, DeSantis or Hannity, tune in Thursday night. Your country is counting on you.